Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at 0907(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.1% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 41.5% | -4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.2 |
| Fire Suited | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.5% | -11.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |